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It’s time for another Royals roster projection! We last did this exercise in December of last year. We’ve got double digits of spring training games played now, so the picture has become perhaps a little bit clearer. Certainly, it seems EXCEPTIONALLY unlikely any of those dream lineups I concocted at the end of the piece are going to come to fruition. Alas.
But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been any changes! So here’s the new projection with any changes from the previous projection indicated by italics.
Everyday lineup
SS Bobby Witt Jr.
RF Jac Caglianone
3B Maikel Garcia
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
C Salvador Perez
DH Carter Jensen
LF Isaac Collins
2B Jonathan India
CF Kyle Isbel
It’s the same nine guys as last time, though I did rearrange things a bit. Yes, I admit this looks a little crazy, but stick with me for a minute.
With Bobby doing some leading off in Spring Training and projected to do so for Team USA in the WBC, I think he’s finally going to come around to doing it for the Royals in the regular season. Jac Caglianone is having a monster spring — including laying off a lot of pitches up in the zone, which were something of a kryptonite for him last year — and he’s been batting second a lot. The smart money is that this is just because the Royals want him to get extra ABs before he also heads off to the WBC, but look at all the fun things we can do with R-L arrangements if he takes over as the number two hitter. For what it’s worth, if he can reach his 80th-percentile projections, he could very easily be the team’s second-best hitter and absolutely belong in that spot. Having Maikel batting behind him could help him get more pitches to hit, too.
Listen, it’s not any fun if we only say the most obvious things. So yeah, it’s a little crazy, but I think it just might work.
Bench
DH/OF Starling Marte
OF Lane Thomas
UT Michael Massey
UT Tyler Tolbert
The Royals signed Marte to a Major League deal on Saturday, so he — along with Thomas — is going to be a lock for the bench. This no longer leaves room for a third catcher, so the Royals are just going to have to live on that edge. Michael Massey takes over from Adam Frazier on the bench after a hot spring, and with Frazier choosing to join the Halos. The last spot could go to Nick Loftin instead of Tyler Tolbert, but I think the Royals will prefer the speed on the bench to Loftin’s batting eye. But also, based on how they approached the offseason, I could be very wrong on that one. Tell me I’m an idiot in the comments if you want, and then ask me again tomorrow because I could change my mind.
I don’t think Josh Rojas has a real shot to break camp with the club — especially not with the Marte signing, with how well Massey has played, and with Tolbert and Loftin already on the 40-man roster. That goes double for all other infielders trying to crack the roster.
Rotation
LHP Cole Ragans
RHP Seth Lugo
LHP Kris Bubic
RHP Michael Wacha
LHP Noah Cameron
Last time, I mostly thought Bubic wouldn’t be on the team and that, if he was, they’d consider moving him to the bullpen. But he really was one of the best starters in MLB last year, and since none of the trades materialized and Marte signed, it seems like we get to watch him pitch for KC for at least one more year. Now I just have to pray for my favorite pitcher to get a midseason contract extension, à la Seth Lugo last year.
Bullpen
CL Carlos Estévez
RHP Lucas Erceg
LHP Matt Strahm
RHP John Schreiber
RHP Nick Mears
LHP Helcris Olivárez
RHP Mason Black
LHP Bailey Falter
With Bubic no longer in the ’pen, they need another lefty. Olivárez has really impressed me this spring, especially with his heretofore unseen ability to throw strikes while regularly hitting 98 from the left side. I think that should be enough to get him a big-league job. Alex Lange drops off because he hasn’t impressed me much yet, and his major league money doesn’t kick in until he’s on the major league roster, so starting him in AAA if he doesn’t look ready is a smart move. Black also has options, but he’s looked terrific on the mound so far this spring, and I’d like to see him carry that on.
I’m still not remotely convinced that Bailey Falter will be with KC by the end of Spring Training, but I also haven’t seen anyone else stand out enough to kick him off the team if KC doesn’t find a trade partner. My best guess is that if they do deal Falter, as things stand right now, Daniel Lynch IV would get his spot as the swingman/mop-up guy. I would like to point out that Danny Coulombe is still looking for a job, though. Come on, Royals, do the fun thing and bring him in! Then we wouldn’t need Lynch or Falter, and Olivárez could become the mop-up guy!
This still leaves out talented relievers Steven Cruz, James McArthur, and Luinder Avila in the minors to start the year, but expect all of them to appear in KC at various points when the team needs to option someone or someone hits the IL. Dennis Colleran Jr. has looked pretty good, but I just can’t see him in the big leagues earlier than very late this season — and probably more like next year.
I’ve had hours and days to think about this, and I think I’ve finally figured out how Marte fits on this roster. It took so long because, for most of my Royals fandom, they’ve filled their benches with defensive masters or speedsters. The last time I can remember them carrying someone on the bench primarily for his ability to hit was Ryan McBroom in 2021. And McBroom didn’t last the whole season. Before that, it was Dave McCarty in 2000 and 2001 (though he was bad in 2001). So Marte will break with tradition in more ways than one — being primarily a good hitter on the bench and not having an Irish/Scottish surname while doing so.