Best and worst case scenario for Texas basketball entering March

The Longhorns locked up a massive win yesterday over Texas A&M, 76-70, in College Station. Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark led the way offensively with Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietatis fell into foul trouble. As we enter the final week of the season, a trip to Arkansas and Oklahoma in Austin looms large. 

Splitting the two contests should be enough to guarantee the Longhorns a spot in the field of 64. What happens if Texas sweeps the final week or, on the flip side, falls short in both?

Let’s get into the best and worst case scenarios for the Longhorns heading down the home stretch: 

Best Case Scenario 

Obviously, Texas beating Arkansas, dominating Oklahoma and winning the SEC tournament would be the best case scenario. Where that would put the Longhorns, I don’t know but a 6-seed could be on the table. 

Outside of winning the SEC tournament, Texas could still find their way to a great seed. If Texas gets two wins this week, enters the SEC tournament at their current 7 seed, they would get a bye. It’s hard to know exactly who they’d play but one win in the SEC tournament should be expected. Another win would be a cherry on top and could slide them as high as a 7-seed in the tournament. 

Worst Case Scenario 

On the other hand, if Texas falls to Arkansas and Oklahoma, they could be staring down a first round SEC game, with a loss knocking them out of the tournament altogether. A first four invite could be the reality there, but Selection Sunday would be a nerve-inducing day for Longhorn Nation. 

Texas basketball is up to #36 in the latest NET rankings.

Georgia also moved into the top 30 in NET, giving Texas another Q1 win. The Longhorns now have 7 total Q1 wins overall.

Those metrics equate to a NCAA tournament bid nearly 100% of the time. #HookEm

— HornSports (@HornSports) March 1, 2026

In summary, the tournament is clearly in the Longhorns’ sights. Going 1-1 in the next two games should put them in the dance regardless of how the SEC tournament goes. A 2-0 finish + an SEC tournament win could lead to an 8 or 7-seed. If yesterday was the Longhorns final win of the regular season, Selection Sunday could be nerve racking for Texas. While Texas is seemingly in a great spot, never take anything for granted in March.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Texas Tournament Odds: Splitting final two should confirm spot