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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to return for the Oklahoma City Thunder when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The reigning MVP is no longer on the injury report after missing nine games with an abdominal strain. The question now is how much SGA will actually play.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks are taking a measured approach to the reigning MVP's output on Friday, February 27.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
Nuggets vs Thunder best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-115)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t played since February 3, with the Oklahoma City Thunder going 5-4 SU in his absence, allowing the surging San Antonio Spurs to close the gap in the West.
SGA’s return is a major boost for OKC, but preserving his health is the top priority. He not only needs to meet the MVP qualifying threshold, but the Thunder have only a 1.5-game lead atop the conference.
While a full workload could yield 30+ points, most models range from 18.4 to 23.7 points if his minutes are capped. I expect OKC to play it safe against the Denver Nuggets tonight.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
The Nuggets reminded the league they’re still a contender by blasting the Boston Celtics earlier this week, showing they rise to the challenge against the NBA’s elite.
After missing nine games, OKC will protect the MVP in his first outing back, and he’s unlikely to reach that scoring total.
With SGA limited, Chet Holmgren drew more defensive attention, and his numbers dipped. Even with Shai seeing reduced minutes, the 7-footer will benefit from extra space, with models projecting him for 20+ points tonight.
Nuggets vs Thunder SGP
- Nuggets +8
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points
- Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Calling on Cam
Cameron Johnson has looked great since returning from a six-week absence (knee bruise), averaging almost 12 points, four rebounds, and two assists in the last seven games.
Johnson's player projections all sit north of these prop totals tonight.
Nuggets vs Thunder SGP
- Nuggets moneyline
- Cameron Johnson Over 12.5 points
- Cameron Johnson Over 3.5 rebounds
- Cameron Johnson Over 1.5 assists
Nuggets vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Nuggets +8 (-110) | Thunder -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets +250 | Thunder -310
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 38-25-1 ATS as underdogs over the past three years, including a 12-6 ATS mark when catching points this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Friday, February 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
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