Why Kyle Schwarber unlocks Phillies' offense atop order originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Right?
By those standards, Kyle Schwarber never would have left the leadoff spot. From 2022-24, Schwarber produced three straight seasons with 34 or more home runs and then drove in 104 runs in 2024.
Since the stat has been tracked, only two players have driven in more runs as a leadoff hitter in a single season. Jimmy Rollins is the only other Phillie to collect more than 80 RBIs.
Schwarber even broke the all-time single-season record for the most home runs led off the game, with a remarkable 15.
Rob Thomson did make a change ahead of 2025, though, even if it went against the grain.
Trea Turner hit leadoff for most of the season. He won the National League batting title at .304. Schwarber spent most of his at-bats in the two-hole, then finished with 56 home runs and a league-leading 132 RBIs.
Regardless, the last two years have ended in NLDS exits. Thomson said Sunday he wants Turner, Schwarber and Bryce Harper hitting in the first inning.
So go back to Schwarber leading off.
In 2024, Schwarber saw a career-high 50% strike rate in the leadoff spot. As he continues his run as one of the most feared hitters in baseball on a new five-year deal, seeing pitches to hit matters.
Last season, Schwarber hit a career-best .279 against fastballs with a .767 slugging percentage.
It’d be surprising if pitchers continue to attack him with fastballs and pitches in the zone, but a return to the No. 1 spot could help sustain that success.
Schwarber is essentially a switch-hitter at the plate, too. He mashes same-side pitching. Against lefties, he posted a .964 OPS. Against righties, it was .904. Pitchers don’t have an easy lane whatever way they slice it.
Take a page out of the Dodgers’ book, too. Leading off Shohei Ohtani has ignited their offense and kept balanced hitters like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — who still make hard contact and drive the ball — productive on the wrong side of 30.
That could be just like what the Phillies have.
Turner experienced a noticeable dip in power last season, finishing with his fewest home runs in a full season. He’s also echoed the organization’s approach at the plate. Thomson and Dave Dombrowski have long pushed a doubles-based offense, not one built solely on the homer.
A move down to second could help. If Schwarber is getting on via fastballs, walks or pitchers simply choosing to face Turner, his 2025 numbers suggest he’d benefit from that spot.
Among National League hitters with runners on base (minimum 250 plate appearances), Turner ranked fourth in batting average at .321. He thrives with traffic, and those chances come more often hitting second than leading off.
With more runners on, Turner could also lean into his power stroke. In his first two seasons in Philadelphia, the 32-year-old hit back-to-back 20-homer seasons, almost exclusively out of the two-hole.
If the table is set by Schwarber and Turner is behind him as a direct hit or extra-base hit threat, Harper gets more chances to drive in runs. The last time the lineup was structured that way, Harper was at his best with runners in scoring position.
In 2024, Harper hit .331 with a 1.122 OPS with RISP, which ranked fourth among all qualified hitters.
One concern Harper raised Sunday was the volume of pitches he’s seen — and might continue to see — in the zone in 2026. A Schwarber-Turner combo in front of him should help that.
Of course, one of the biggest offseason talking points was lineup protection behind Harper. The Phillies added Adolis García. Thomson’s preference is to have a right-handed bat there, whether that’s Alec Bohm, García or even J.T. Realmuto.
Of all the Phillies who hit cleanup last season, Schwarber was by far the best. Reworking the order in 2026 could suggest protecting Harper with Schwarber, but the 2025 splits don’t point that way.
Harper slashed .221/.333/.410 (.743 OPS) with Schwarber behind him. With the other cleanup hitters — mostly Nick Castellanos, Realmuto and Bohm — he posted a .272/.364/.519 slash line (.883 OPS).
So with this structure, who elevates a cleanup spot that posted the lowest Phillies OPS from that slot since 2014 (.720)?
Start with García.
Based on raw power and hard-hit ability, García is second on the roster behind Schwarber. Even while posting a .665 OPS in 2025, García recorded a 92.1 mph average exit velocity, which ranked 29th in baseball and was higher than sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Harper. It would have ranked second on the Phillies.
And it’s not like the track record isn’t there. García drove in 100-plus runs in consecutive seasons from 2022-23, with many of those plate appearances coming from the four-hole. If the Phillies get real production there, the team OPS rises with it.
The fifth spot also gives Thomson a chance to balance the lineup with a season-long platoon in left field.
Brandon Marsh and Otto Kemp do serious damage against righties and lefties, respectively, and bring enough pop to hold a heart-of-the-order role. Marsh slashed .300/.356/.482 against righties last season. Kemp slugged .462 against lefties in the Majors and posted a .977 OPS in those matchups in the Minors.
That structure could open a lane for Bohm to hit sixth. It’s different, but lineup depth has been an issue at times in recent years.
If a hitter who has batted .280 or higher in three of his past four seasons and driven in 97 runs in two of his last three is hitting sixth, that’s real length. Bohm has close to 400 plate appearances in that spot and has hit .281 in his carer.
It could take pressure off the 29-year-old in his walk year and put him in a better run-producing rhythm.
From there, seven through nine can be matchup-dependent. It’s realistic the Phillies run another platoon at second base between Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa. They need more offensive production from their newly re-signed catcher, Realmuto.
And rookie Justin Crawford could settle in as one of the better No. 9 hitters in the game. He’ll put the ball in play, pressure defenses with speed and set the table for Schwarber. If it clicks early, he could also play his way into a larger role as the season moves along.
With that structure, the Phillies could roll out one of their deepest lineups — and one with a better chance of not going cold when October tightens.
Thomson won’t have Schwarber and Harper around for most of Spring Training as they head to the World Baseball Classic, but the framework is already there:
- Kyle Schwarber, DH (L)
- Trea Turner, SS (R)
- Bryce Harper, 1B (L)
- Adolis García, RF (R)
- Brandon Marsh/Otto Kemp, LF (L/R)
- Alec Bohm, 3B (R)
- Bryson Stott/Edmundo Sosa, 2B (L/R)
- J.T. Realmuto, C (R)
- Justin Crawford, CF (L)
It’s an interesting bunch, and it all runs through the Schwarbarian.