In my fantasy league last season, I drafted David Montgomery as a hedge for my first-round pick, Jahmyr Gibbs. The latter stayed healthy and productive all season, so Montgomery was merely a weekly flex play. The question for managers is whether he will remain a flex option in 2026.
The market will likely give him the benefit of the doubt. Turning 29 in June, Montgomery might have one or even two fantasy-relevant campaigns remaining. At first glance, his 2025 number supports this. He netted a solid 4.5 yards per carry -- the second-highest tally of his career. Despite accruing a career-low 182 touches, he was the overall RB27. Not bad.
Unless the Lions trade him (he's signed for one more year) or draft/sign someone to compete for the 1B backfield role, Montgomery's preseason ADP should fall in the RB32-RB36 range. Those drafting Gibbs might even reach a round or two early, because Montgomery still seems to be a capable handcuff.
Now the most important stuff: Montgomery had a deceptively rough season. He endured career-lows in targets per game -- a key measure of an RB's floor -- and yards per game. As long as Gibbs is active, these numbers won't suddenly snap back. Essentially, they have nowhere to go but down.
The most important stat -- the red flag that all managers should recognize -- is that he averaged one broken tackle per 60.7 touches. Beyond the obvious, why should this matter? Montgomery had been one of the most elusive running backs for years. He entered last season with 169 broken tackles on 1,526 touches. That's one broken tackle per 9.0 touches dating back to his 2019 rookie year.
Montgomery probably will be overvalued at your fantasy draft. If you snag Gibbs, then you don't have much of a choice. But if you don't get Gibbs, Montgomery will be a fade at his expected ADP.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: David Montgomery: Early 2026 ADP and scoring projections for Lions RB