What do you expect from Gunnar Henderson this year?

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 04: Gunnar Henderson #2 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, August 4, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

After a 2024 season where Gunnar Henderson was one of the best players in all of MLB, Orioles fans could be hopeful he’d be able to repeat at that elite level. It didn’t work out that way, with Henderson having a still pretty good but nowhere near MVP-level season. We know now, from Henderson’s own telling, that he battled through a shoulder impingement that was likely a factor in his diminished power.

Here’s what two big projection systems, ZiPS at FanGraphs and PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus, see as the 50th percentile outcome for Henderson this year:

ZiPS: .272/.352/.491 with 29 home runs and 22 stolen bases
PECOTA: .265/.347/.476 with 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases

Each of these represents a sizable improvement over what Henderson was able to do last year and would place Henderson back among the best players in baseball. The ZiPS projection, particularly, has Henderson tied for the sixth-best WAR projection of any position player in MLB. Pretty good!

The projections believe a young player like Henderson can bounce back to an elite level after what he’s shown in his career so far. What do you think is coming from Henderson this season?