The Wizards lost by 25 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a game that I just don’t want to think or write about. Except for this: the person watching last night’s game with me thought it was nice James Harden was introduced as part of a ceremony to honor old-time players. They were shocked to learn he was playing.
Instead of talking about defensive rotations and offensive actions against Cleveland, let’s zoom out and take stock of the Wizards season so far.
The Measuring Stick
Here’s where the Wizards currently rank in the various key stats of team strength (where they ranked at the last update, which was Jan. 20, is in parentheses):
- Offensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 28 (28)
- Defensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29 (29)
I’m reasonably sure I’ve spotted moments of growth and improvement, though those moments haven’t been consistent enough to send a signal through the numbers. That signal isn’t necessarily important right now. The roster is extremely young, and the overarching organizational goal is keeping their top eight protected first round pick.
At least in theory, we might hope to see some positives in the individual numbers, but team data will remain in the basement because the team needs to lose.
Some of this will (and has been) done at the roster level. For example, sitting everyone with “injuries” in a must-lose game against the Brooklyn Nets. Some of it will (and has been) done at the lineup level, such as playing two-way and G League guys for entire fourth quarters (and winning a game anyway) or starting the diminutive lineup they did against Cleveland last night (the tallest player was the 6-8 Kyshawn George).
Offensive Four Factors
- eFG%: 26 (23)
- Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 16 (19)
- Turnover Rate: 24 (26)
- Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 26 (27)
Over the past few weeks, the Wizards are shooting a little worse but getting a few more offensive rebounds. This is something of a young team cliche, which is fine.
Defensive Four Factors
- eFG%: 24 (22)
- Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 30 (30)
- Turnover Rate: 27 (28)
- Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 23 (21)
Effectively no change on the defensive end. Opponents are shooting slightly better, which has been sorta offset by committing fewer fouls that send opposing players to the free throw line. The signal here is clear: the Wizards don’t make the other team miss shots, they’re worst in the league at getting the ball when the opposing team misses, and they don’t force turnovers. They also foul at an elevated rate relative to the league.
Player Production Average
Below is a table with updated results from the Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.
PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.
Inputs include:
- on-court team defensive rating
- points
- rebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)
- assists
- steals
- blocks
- shot attempts
- turnovers
- personal fouls
- starts
- minutes
In the table below, I’ve included each player’s PPA last time, currently (through games played Feb. 11 — game 53), as well as games played and minutes per game. The Garbage Time Brigade has their own section.
In the table below, LAST = the player’s PPA when I last ran an update, which was through games played Jan. 19, 2026.
| PLAYER | GAMES | MPG | LAST | PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sarr | 41 | 28.2 | 145 | 138 |
| Justin Champagnie | 50 | 19.3 | 96 | 108 |
| Kyshawn George | 43 | 30.1 | 94 | 97 |
| Tre Johnson | 40 | 25.0 | 80 | 82 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 33 | 26.8 | 81 | 80 |
| Malaki Branham | 28 | 9.8 | 56 | 58 |
| Bub Carrington | 53 | 28.0 | 51 | 53 |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 33 | 11.9 | 46 | 52 |
| Cam Whitmore | 21 | 16.9 | 49 | 49 |
| Will Riley | 45 | 16.6 | 34 | 46 |
| GTB | GAMES | MPG | PPA | PPA |
| Kadary Richmond | 1 | 6.0 | 315 | |
| Jaden Hardy | 1 | 15.0 | 99 | |
| Skal Labissiere | 3 | 12.7 | 73 | |
| Anthony Gill | 19 | 3.8 | 48 | 48 |
| Jamir Watkins | 17 | 13.4 | 29 | 29 |
| Keshon Gilbert | 3 | 16.0 | 8 |
A few quick observations:
- Alex Sarr’s production has been drooping a bit lately. Over the past few weeks, he has had some good games and great moments, as well as some real duds. He’s more than a little overtaxed inside where he continues to be the NBA’s busiest rim protector.
- Justin Champagnie has generally produced when given minutes.
- When I mentioned earlier how perceived improvement isn’t sending a signal in the numbers, I was thinking in part of the overall consistency in individual production numbers. Scanning the list, Sarr has declined a bit, Champagnie and Will Riley have improved, and everyone else has been about the same.
Final PPA numbers for traded guys — with the Wizards and then with their new team:
- CJ McCollum: 113 | 91
- Marvin Bagley III: 103 | 130
- Khris Middleton: 83 | 99
- Corey Kispert: 79 | 76
- AJ Johnson: 0 | -98