What are the expectations?
FanGraph Depth Chart projections show two Diamondback outfielders with above average power: Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (proj-SLG>.404 and proj-HR/PA>.031). Because they are injured, their above-average power is not assumed. What is assumed is they will play on the outfield corners when they return from the injured list. The biggest question is who will play center field.
Ryan Waldschmidt and Jordan Lawlar are probably not ready to play full-time center field due to youth (each is 23 years old) and lack of experience in center field (Waldschmidt had 38 games at the AA level, and Lawlar had 3 games in the offseason).
On the other end of the age spectrum, this season may be the last chance for Jorge Barrosa and Alek Thomas to have a breakthrough performance.
Jorge Barrosa has good plate discipline but hits below his potential, especially last season. His defense at center field is above average (2 OAA last season).
In the last four seasons, Alek Thomas had below average batting except for 2024 (when he had only 103 PAs). His defense at center field was great in 2022 and 2023, then average and terrible in the last two seasons.
The expectation is that Tim Tawa’s most valuable role is as a utility player off the bench. Last season, he played 20 games at first base, 23 games at second base, 3 games at third base, 14 games at left field, 18 games at center field, and 3 games at right field.
The following table shows FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for these outfielders.
What could exceeding expectations look like?
Corbin Carroll. The foundation of exceeding expectations is that his defense continues to be exceptional (10 OAA last season).
Three projections predicted regression for Corbin Carroll’s batting. They each projected his homers and hits to drop (the one exception expected him to have 5 more hits than last season).
My 2026 Outlook was more optimistic. One reason was that Carroll, at 25 years old, was younger than the typical peak in batter performance, which occurs between age 27 and 29. My projection was 34 homers and 160 hits. See this player review.
Then Corbin Carroll broke his hamate bone. He may not be ready by opening day. Also, his injury could possibly lower his batting power for months after his return. If he exceeds his projection AND reaches my optimistic outlook, then he will have definitely have exceeded expectations. If he again wins a Silver Slugger (like he did last season), he will have been truly extraordinary.
Ryan Waldschmidt.
Among the six players, his batting projection is second best. Especially noteworthy is his projected on-base-percent. Despite an unorthodox swing, if his batting in the Majors reaches his high potential, that will be the foundation of exceeding expectations. Building on that foundation, if despite his very limited experience in center field, his defense in center field is at least average (and perhaps above average), that will be the capstone in his exceeding expectations.
“Along with assigning him a 50 FV, our prospect team wrote that the 23-year-old outfielder in the Arizona Diamondbacks system “does just about everything you want at the plate and he looks the part of a bat-first future regular in the box.” — David Laurila
Jordan Lawlar.
Last season, he injured his hamstring. In the last couple seasons, he played fewer games than most prospects, which raised doubts about his ceiling. Can he avoid injury? Avoiding injury will be a third of him exceeding expectations.
Last season in the Majors, in 28 games his batting was poor (OPS+ of 51). If his batting in the Majors reaches above average, that will be a third of him exceeding expectations.
He has near-zero playing time in center field. If he can quickly learn the new position if he can almost reach average defense, while showing progress, that will be a third of him exceeding expectations.
“I’ve heard Lawlar described as prospect bust, but I vehemently disagree with calling any player a bust based on a 108 game sample spread out over 2¼ seasons , especially a player with Jordan Lawlar’s prospect pedigree and strong track record in the Minor Leagues.” — C Wesley Baier
Jorge Barrosa. The foundation of exceeding expectations is that his defense continues to be great (2 OAA last season).
Last season, he made an adjustment to his swing. His FanGraphs projection for batting is the lowest of the outfielders that we are considering. If he gets his swing right, and his batting reaches league average, that would be the main part of exceeding expectations.
“In Reno, Barrosa is a borderline full-time starter with a high walk rate (11.8%) and a serviceable strikeout rate (20.8%). This sort of plate discipline and Barrosa’s acuity with the glove will almost certainly get him another look in the Majors in 2026.” — James Attwood
Alek Thomas.
He does not have a trend of improving every season. If Alex Thomas bats like he did in 2024, and if he defends center field like he did in 2022 and 2023, then he will have exceeded expectations.
“At this point, expecting Thomas to anchor center field for a competitive Diamondbacks club feels optimistic. His tools suggest upside, but four seasons of stasis on offense and regression on defense tell a different story.” — Jeff Irving
“While his [Thomas] OPS+ of 82 was a personal high, it still ranked Thomas 163rd of the 177 players to receive 450+ PA in 2025. With his defense also less impressive – there was no Gold Glove nomination for Thomas this season -he ended up basically at replacement level.” — Jim McLennan
Tim Tawa. If he can bat so far above average that the Diamondbacks need him as an everyday player, he will have exceeded the expectation that he is most valuable as a utility player off the bench.
Summary.
As an everyday outfielder, any of these six players could most exceed expectations.
Corbin Carroll seems the most likely to most exceed expectations. And I’d be thrilled if Ryan Waldschmidt was promoted this season and exceeded exectations. With good fortune, maybe two of these players could most exceed expectations.