Pitchers and catchers are reporting, and so are public projection systems. Baseball Prospectus has released their 2026 projections from PECOTA, with a glowing 93.6-win aggregated projection for the Seattle Mariners that is the best in the American League by a sizable margin. Not only is Seattle projected to repeat as AL West champions, but they hold the highest playoff odds and World Series odds of any club in the AL, and are second in all totals only to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It’s a ringing endorsement for Seattle, who boast an above-average lineup and pitching staff, bolstered significantly by their willingness to add Brendan Donovan to the fold. Between Donovan, 5-win projections for both Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, and each of Seattle’s five presumed rotation members projecting from average to All-Star caliber, PECOTA tells us plenty we know already. What is helpful however, is how these M’s contrast to the rest of the league.
The AL West features three genuine contenders, with both Lone Star State clubs checking in as near-coin flips for a playoff spot. They remain a tier below Seattle, however, with Houston around an 86 win pace and Texas at 84. Striking distance, to be sure, but set in such a way to be Seattle’s to lose. Only the Cubs above their thrifty compatriots and the Dodgers above their mortal competitors feature a greater gap between the 1st and 2nd place clubs in their divisions in terms of projected wins as the AL West.
The crowded AL East is its own worst enemy, with all five clubs set at a >.500 pace, albeit more comfortably for the Yankees and Blue Jays than their compatriots. There’s plucky promise from the Kansas City Royals in PECOTA’s eyes as well, with the AL Central continuing to remain the second division of the sport’s highest level.
On the heels of a near dead heat projection by ZiPS in late January, prior to Seattle’s acquisition of Donovan, Seattle has now a formidable expectation of superiority from the major public projections, with FanGraphs presently showing Seattle around an 87-88 win club that’s 6-7 wins ahead of their Texan competition. On the day of triumphant celebration in downtown Seattle for one SoDo club, there’s reason to think more high-level play impends on the corner of Occidental.