• What: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 83 (MSU broadcast), 380 (Ohio State broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 21-5 overall and 11-4 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 15 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll. The Spartans are No. 12 in the NET rankings and No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Ohio State is 17-9 overall, 9-6 in the Big Ten, and unranked by both major polls, while being No. 38 in the NET rankings and No. 36 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -10.5
• Coaches:Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 758-307 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Ohio State — Jake Diebler is 42-27 in his third season as a head coach (second full season) and with the Buckeyes.
• Series: MSU leads 76-61 all-time. MSU won the only meeting last year, 69-62 in Columbus.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.0
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.4
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.9
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.8
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.1
Ohio State
C (13) Christoph Tilly (7-0) 11.4
PF (1) Amare Bynum (6-8) 9.6
SF (21) Devin Royal (6-6) 14.0
SG (3) Taison Chatman (6-4) 4.3
PG (2) Bruce Thornton (6-2) 19.9
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming of a much-needed win and performance Tuesday against UCLA. At 11-4 in Big Ten play, MSU is out of the Big Ten title race, but playing important games now for NCAA tournament seeding and, to a lesser extent, Big Ten tournament seeding. The Spartans are very much in the hunt for a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, which would be a far better path than being a 4 or 5 seed in terms of their path to a deep run. Getting to a 2 seed isn’t out of the realm of possibility, though it would take some work, perhaps wins at Purdue and at Michigan.
Before the Spartans can worry about that, they’ve got to handle business at home against Ohio State. MSU is the No. 6 team in the country in defensive efficiency and No. 40 in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and the Spartans are No. 2 in defensive rebounding percentage and No. 6 in offensive rebounding. MSU point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. continues to lead the country in assists at 9.2 per game.
• Ohio State update: The Buckeyes just walloped Wisconsin, 86-69, Tuesday night for their most impressive win of the season. Senior guard Bruce Thornton, who’s become one of those players who it seems has been around for a decade, is playing like he’s determined to taste an NCAA tournament before he’s done. Ohio State last reached the Big Dance in 2021-22, the year before Thornton arrived. The Buckeyes have a decent shot to make it this season. Right now they’re projected right on the NCAA bubble by a number of bracketologists. The win over Wisconsin helped. Winning at MSU would do wonders for their case. Hurting their chances is a hand injury to sophomore guard John Mobley, the team’s second-leading scorer and most prolific shooter. Mobley is out indefinitely after having surgery on his hand after suffering the injury during the USC game on Feb. 11. Since he’s been out, Ohio State has lost to Virginia on a neutral court and bludgeoned the Badgers at home.
• Matchup analysis: The loss of Mobley hurts the Buckeyes. He was shooting 40% on 175 3-point attempts. Mobley's replacement in the starting lineup, redshirt sophomore Taison Chatman, is a strong shooter, who’s made 2 of 4 3-point tries in each of his two starts and is 17-for-32 from deep on the season. Thornton is a three-level scorer. He's the engine and an elite pick-and-roll guard, a bucket-getter more than he’s a distributor, though he’s had eight assists twice in the last three games. He’s also scored 56 points over the two games without Mobley. I don’t think MSU will want to risk Fears getting in foul trouble defending Thornton. I’d expect Jordan Scott to get that assignment and see if he can do to Thornton what he did to Illinois’ Keaton Wagler. Disrupting Thornton is the key to limiting an Ohio State offense that ranks 22nd nationally in Kenpom and is among the top five in the Big Ten.
While the Buckeyes have some shooters, they’re at their best inside the arc and getting to the free-throw line, where they shoot close to 80%. Devin Royal can be a tough matchup on the wing, but it’s one that MSU is equipped to handle with Coen Carr and perhaps Cam Ward. Christopher Tilly, a Santa Clara transfer, is 7-feet and skilled offensively, but not a great defender or rebounder.
• Prediction: The Buckeyes will be more invested in giving the Spartans a fight than UCLA was on Tuesday night. But this is the sort of game MSU ought to win at home — and one the Spartans have to win if they want to move toward a top 3 seed in the NCAA tournament and hope to get a top 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, which comes with a double-bye. MSU has been too good at home for teams beneath the elite tier.
• Make it: MSU 77, Ohio State 67
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Ohio State prediction, preview, TV, betting line