Tonight, the post-All-Star break gauntlet begins. And if it feels like you have heard me use that word before when talking about the Phoenix Suns, you are not imagining things. It always feels this way. For whatever reason, the Suns routinely land in the top ten in remaining strength of schedule, and yes, I went to Tankathon to double-check myself before saying it out loud again.
Checks Tankathon…
Ummm…why aren’t the Suns on anyone’s ‘toughest opponent’ list? What are we? Chopped liver here?!
What’s left is no joke. The final 27 games are stacked with teams that have something at stake. These are not drifting opponents. These are teams fighting for playoff positioning, teams clawing to avoid the Play-In, teams scrapping to get into it. And that is exactly where Phoenix lives right now, right in the middle of the mess, where every night feels like it carries a little extra weight.
The difference now is perception. The Suns are no longer sneaking up on anyone. That part of the season is gone. They have exceeded expectations, changed the tone around the league, and earned a reputation. Teams know what’s coming. They know about the pressure, the physicality, the disruption Phoenix brings possession after possession. Whether opponents can actually execute through that chaos is a different conversation, and one we are going to track in real time as this thing winds down. But the margin is thinner now. The urgency is louder. And this final stretch is going to tell us exactly who the Suns are, even though everyone knows the test is coming.
When you dig into the numbers and look at what remains, a few things jump out that feel worth paying attention to. Of the 27 games left, 14 are against teams currently above the .500 mark. To this point in the season, the Suns are 13–17 against teams over .500. That tells you that they have been good, not great, in those environments. Competitive but not dominant.
Where they have made their money is against lesser competition. Phoenix is 19–6 against teams under .500, and there are still 13 games left on the schedule against that tier of opponent. It reinforces what we already know. This team takes care of business when it should, and that has been a defining characteristic of the season.
So if you take those pre-All-Star break trends, apply the same winning percentages to what lies ahead, and do a little honest math (.433 winning percentage against over .500 teams, .760 winning percentage against sub-.500 teams, divided into the respective remaining totals against teams currently classified as such), the projection lands in a very reasonable place. A 17-12 finish over the final 27 games. That puts the Suns at 49–33. The question is now can that do that?
The feel-good story of the Suns is about to be tested over the remainder of the season, and a big part of that is because the expectations have quietly shifted, at least in the eyes of the fan base. This was a team that most people penciled in for around 31 wins, maybe fewer if things broke the wrong way. They hit 32 before the All-Star break.
When you start there, the natural question becomes how much the organization adjusts its priorities, its internal expectations, and its timelines. If the trade deadline told us anything about how Mat Ishbia and Brian Gregory view this season, it is that they are committed to staying the course. The focus remains on long-term viability and organizational health rather than chasing short-term fixes in a season where a championship run still feels out of reach. There was no panic. No swing for the fences. No attempt to paper over cracks with temporary solutions.
Now the roster is set. This is the team. And the interesting thing is that Phoenix is not alone in that reality. Every team they are chasing, or being chased by, has issues of its own. Oklahoma City does not look like the same juggernaut it was a year ago, and it is dealing with health concerns. Houston is staring down a Kevin Durant-sized cloud, something Suns fans know all too well. Minnesota has struggled to consistently beat quality opponents. The Lakers lack depth. The Warriors are showing the very real effects of age and injuries.
There are no clean paths in this part of the standings. No perfect teams waiting at the top. The Suns are flawed, but so is everyone else, and that is what makes the final stretch of this season so fascinating.
So the question becomes: as we march toward March, how many of the Suns’ deficiencies will actually show themselves and be exploited by opposing teams over the remainder of the schedule? How many wins? How many losses? Where does this ultimately land them in the standings? There are 27 games left, and every one of them feels like a data point in a larger experiment. How much of what we have seen so far is sustainable? How much of it was momentum, surprise, and timing lining up just right?
And maybe the most important question of all: how do you feel about the very real possibility that this team stumbles down the stretch? Because that possibility exists. The reasons are clear. The margin is thin. The league adjusts. The legs get heavy. The film piles up.
But if this team has taught us anything this season, it is to expect the unexpected. To acknowledge all the reasons it should not work, then sit back and enjoy it when it does. This is not a team built through traditional roster construction, clean archetypes, or tidy measurables. They are winning through things you cannot easily chart. Heart. Connectivity. Trust. Talent that keeps outperforming expectations.
So here we go. The final 27. No safety net. No mystery left. It starts tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.