PORT ST. LUCIE - Will the Mets be a better offensive team in 2026 than the tantalizing versions of recent years that too often were notoriously inconsistent, especially when it counted most? Even without Pete Alonso’s power and production?
Carlos Mendoza says he believes it.
“I like the way our lineup looks,” Mendoza told me before the Mets’ workout on Wednesday. “We’ve got guys with track records as run-producers, guys who know how to drive in runs, and that means a lot, especially with high on-base guys in front of them. I feel good about it.”
Mendoza was referring primarily to the additions of free agents Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, who together might be the best clutch-hitting tandem in baseball, judging by their history of hitting with runners in scoring position.
Consider that:
Bichette hit .381 in RISP situations last season, the highest average among all statistically qualified big leaguers.
Polanco hit .400 (20-for-50) with two outs and RISP last season, the second-highest such stat among qualified hitters, behind only Jeremy Pena.
As to where they rank for their careers, Sarah Langs provided me with the research showing that Bichette, with a .330 RISP average, ranks third among all active hitters, behind only Luis Arraez and Freddie Freeman.
While Polanco, at .306, ranks seventh among all active hitters.
That’s a lot of clutch.
“Those guys should help them score a lot of runs,” one MLB scout said on Wednesday. “But it’s also when you score those runs. To me the Mets were too inconsistent in producing in the clutch.”
In this day and age in baseball, of course, analytics tends to dismiss the idea that some players are more clutch than others, making it into more of a probability equation.
So I asked Mendoza on Wednesday if he believed clutch hitting is truly a thing.
“I do believe some guys produce there because they can slow the game down in those situations, which is not easy to do,” he said. “You can make it all about numbers but you still have to play the game, right?
“There’s a reason why guys like Bichette and Polanco have put up numbers year after year in those spots. They have a great approach, they make adjustments, they can use the whole field, they don’t let the game speed up on them.”
Polanco and Bichette, meanwhile, offer similar explanations for their success in the clutch.
“You have to be mentally tough in those situations,” Polanco said Wednesday. “You have to believe in yourself, but you also have to be able to keep it simple. Everybody wants to hit in those situations. Everybody wants to be great.
“I feel like I’ve learned how to approach those situations, where I’m not trying to do too much. Just be myself. Those home runs (off Tarik Skubal in the ALDS), I wasn’t trying to hit them. I’ll remember them for the rest of my life, but it’s because trusted my approach and put good swings on the pitch.”
Bichette said he does think he becomes a little more focused in RISP spots, but also goes to the plate with a more specific plan, and tries not to deviate.
“It’s about what I want to accomplish in the at-bat,” he said.
He didn’t offer much more detail than that, while making it clear that he has a strong belief in his ability to adjust, depending on the count -- something that’s evident in how he’ll essentially eliminate his big leg kick with two strikes and go to his natural ability of taking pitches to the opposite field.
“I’ve had to work hard to turn on the ball (in a hitter’s count),” he said. “I can always go the other way.”
Whatever his approach, nobody has been better year after year in those spots than Bichette.
Only once in his six full seasons in the big leagues, in fact, has he hit lower than .340 with runners in scoring position.
Mendoza smiled when I relayed those numbers.
“It’s not an accident,” he said.
It’s the reason the manager envisions a lineup of Bichette and Polanco hitting in the No. 3 and 4 spots, behind Francisco Lindor and the on-base machine, Juan Soto.
Mendoza also mentioned Mark Vientos, unsolicited, as a guy he is thinking could find his form again and be a difference-maker, potentially the ideal No. 5 hitter.
“I think he can bounce back,” Mendoza said. “For whatever reason, he missed a lot of fastballs that he was hitting the year before, and that led to chasing. I think it’s still there.”
With all of that in mind, Mendoza also acknowledges that the Mets could miss Alonso’s power, yet he believes the ability to drive in runs is what matters most, and he sees the 2026 lineup as having more potential in that area.
Regarding Alonso, Mendoza said, “We’re not looking at replacing his power but just being better overall. We’ve got guys who will hit home runs but we also have guys who have proven they know how to drive in runs.”
David Stearns, meanwhile, has said the Mets didn’t necessarily sign Bichette and Polanco based on their spectacular clutch numbers. He’s an analytics guy at heart, after all, but he did say earlier this offseason that he doesn’t discount the clutch factor.
“I do think there’s something to a player being able to control his heartbeat in the biggest situations,” he said. “Some guys have proven they can do it better than others.”
Perhaps Stearns wants to downplay any notion that he put too much stock in the RISP numbers of Polanco and Bichette. Or even Marcus Semien, who has a career .271 average and .831 OPS with RISP, despite coming off a couple of subpar seasons.
But it clearly seemed to be on Steve Cohen’s mind when he addressed the media on Monday and made point of referencing the Mets’ 0-70 record when trailing after eight innings.
Now that stat may be more about probability -- or improbability -- than anything else, but Cohen then made the point the front office had brought in players “who have performed in high-leverage situations.”
It sure sounded like he believes clutch hitting is a thing. Clearly the Mets are hoping their 2026 offense is proof of that.