The Yankees won 94 games a season ago, but their quest for a 28th World Series championship came up short, losing to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series.
But with Aaron Judge still one of the best hitters on the planet, Cody Bellinger back in the mix, and ace Gerrit Cole eventually returning from Tommy John surgery, what lies in store for Aaron Boone’s group in 2026?
Baseball Prospectus has released their annual PECOTA projections, which runs simulations to identify a range of wins for each team.
An important note from Baseball Prospectus:
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range.
This time around, the Yankees are projected to win 88.5 games and lose 73.5 games, which would put them atop the AL East standings, just ahead of the Blue Jays (88. 3 wins). Both the Yankees and Blue Jays won 94 games last season, with Toronto owning the tie-breaker.
The Yankees would have a 35. 9 percent chance of winning the division, a 74.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 7.4 percent chance of winning the World Series, trailing only the Mariners, Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers. Toronto has the same 7.4 percent chance of winning it all.
For reference, the Yankees exceeded their 2025 PECOTA projections, which had them winning 89.7 games.